Today’s exchange rate report
Over the past 24 hours (October 17), by the time of publication the spot selling rate of the Chinese yuan against the British pound stood at 9.58. Compared with October 16 the central parity rate rose by 251 basis points, meaning the yuan has slightly weakened relative to the pound.
This week’s major events
✨ The UK may be second in G7 growth this year
✨ London’s housing crisis deepens, construction projects face obstacles
✨ Nationwide university strike ballot begins
✨ Immigration thresholds raised, some visas require English at B2
✨ Prince Harry fights to restore “Royal security protection”
01 UK may be second in G7 growth this year
On October 14 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disclosed in its newly issued World Economic Outlook report that the UK’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2025, ranking second among the G7 behind only the US. This performance comes amid the backdrop of US-imposed import tariffs affecting global growth.
According to the IMF, the UK is expected to drop to third place in 2026. Yet while total growth is relatively strong, per-capita output is just 0.4% this year and is forecast at 0.5% in 2026, lowest in the G7. On inflation, the IMF expects the UK’s rate to be 3.4% this year and 2.5% in 2026, and judges that inflation could fall back into the 2% target range by end-2026.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government will use the IMF annual meeting to highlight financial stability and investment-attraction signals to respond to public perceptions of the economy. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that rising unemployment and slower wage growth reflect easing inflationary pressure—but monetary policy still needs to remain cautious.
In the G7 comparison, Canada is affected by trade friction and may slip to third this year, though it is expected to rebound to second next year at about 1.5%. Germany, France and Italy are forecast to grow between 0.2% and 0.9% in 2025-26, well behind the UK and US.
The report also adds that though the US’s increased import tariffs this year did not spark dramatic effects, they have had a negative impact on global growth. Against this backdrop, the UK’s performance appears relatively strong.
02 London’s housing crisis deepens, construction projects face obstacles
London’s housing market is under serious supply pressure. On October 16 the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan and Housing Secretary Steve Reed held emergency talks and plan to reduce the social housing share in new developments from the current 35% to 20%. The “adjustment measure” is intended to revive the slowing construction sector and is expected to be formally announced by end-October.
According to the data, London needs to build 88,000 new homes each year to meet demand, but only 347 social homes were started in the April–June quarter this year — far below target. The 2023/24 social-housing completions for London stood at 2,358 units; in 2024/25 this rose to 3,991 units, yet still leaves a large shortfall.
Developers widely indicate that the 35% social-housing requirement, combined with safety-regulation demands and planning-approval delays, have brought housing construction to a standstill. The Home Builders Federation reported last month that London built only 30,000 homes in the past year—a 12% decline from the year before—and planning permissions granted hit the lowest since 2006, at only 966 projects.
Under the new rule, 20% of social housing will be divided equally between developers and local boroughs, which may draw on government funds and be coordinated by the Mayor’s office. Sadiq Khan stated two weeks ago that the current priority is to bring together developers, local authorities and government “to actively explore all feasible paths” to break the deadlock.
According to government plans, the UK will invest £11.7 billion in social-housing construction between 2026 and 2036 to help relieve London’s housing-supply bottleneck.
03 Nationwide university staff strike ballot begins
On October 14 the University and College Union (UCU) announced that 65,000 academic and administrative staff across 138 universities will launch a strike ballot on October 20; if passed, strike action could start in the spring term of 2026. This follows the large-scale strike wave of 2023-24 and is one of the larger labour-actions in the education sector in recent years.
UCU General Secretary Jo Grady commented: “The 1.4% pay offer is, in an inflation background, effectively a 3% real-terms cut—an insult to academic staff.” She emphasised that “employees should not pay for management’s problems; employers must return to the negotiating table and provide a fair deal.” The ballot covers major institutions including Edinburgh and Manchester, and participants include lecturers, researchers and administrative staff; key demands also include a halt to the elimination of more than 15,000 posts over the past year.
The strike impetus is the pay-rise proposal from the employer representative body Universities & Colleges Employers Association (UCEA). Statistics show the August CPI at 3.8%, while pay-rise proposals for England’s primary and secondary school teachers reached 4%. In contrast, academic-staff real incomes have fallen by over 30% since 2010, and nearly 40% of staff leave within five years of joining.
Universities are preparing accordingly: Edinburgh, Sheffield and others have contingency plans involving online teaching and term-adjustments; Imperial College London and Queen’s University Belfast have opted out of voting and say they will protect teaching delivery. UCEA said that due to international-student shifts and rising costs, its offer was “already cautious”.
04 Immigration thresholds raised, some visas require English at B2
On October 14 the UK Home Office announced a statutory instrument to parliament stating that from January 8 2026, core visa routes for skilled workers, scale-ups and high-potential individuals (HPI) will see the English-language requirement raised from the current B1 level (roughly GCSE) to B2 (roughly A-Level).
Under the new rule applicants will need to pass tests in listening, speaking, reading and writing administered by an Home Office-designated body; results will form a core part of visa assessment. According to the British Council, B2 means users can understand complex text, communicate fluently with native speakers and write detailed texts.
Home Secretary Sajid Javid said: “Those coming to the UK must master English and contribute their skills; Britain welcomes contributors and wants applicants able to take part in local life in English.”
Meanwhile, the white paper introduces a range of combined adjustments: for example, the Graduate Route will be shortened from 2 years to 18 months from January 2027; the Global Talent route will widen to include winners of more recognised awards and so on.
Departments estimate this package of measures will reduce annual net migration by about 100,000. Particularly with the UK’s net migration in 2024 at 431,000 (down from 906,000 in 2023) the Prime Minister says the new system will be more “controlled, selective and fair”.
05 Prince Harry fights to restore “Royal security protection”
According to multiple UK media reports, Prince Harry recently sent a handwritten letter to Home Secretary Saj Bathsay Mahmood (Saj Bhatt)? [sic—should be body] raising again his request to restore his UK royal security protection; the tug-of-war has persisted for three years.
The Royal and VIP Protection Committee (RAVEC) has received his formal application requesting that the committee conduct a yearly risk assessment under its own rules. RAVEC is regulated by the Home Office and is responsible for security assessments of royal family members and senior officials.
Notably, last year Prince Harry filed a case in the High Court seeking to restore UK police protection but lost. The judge ruled that as a “non-working royal member”, he no longer enjoys automatic security rights and may only apply for protection when on a “special visit”.
Currently, Prince Harry’s UK security arrangements operate on a “case-by-case approval” basis; each time he returns to the UK he must notify the government one month in advance and police arrange protective detail on a temporary basis. Prince Harry has publicly stated that this arrangement makes it “difficult to go back home with peace of mind” and that the UK “is not safe for the children”.
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