The clock isticking toward the Bank of England’s rate decision on November 6, a key inflection point being closely watched by markets. Since the bank cut its benchmark rate to 4 % on August 7 and held it there, the big question is whether the update will maintain stability or signal a new policy turn.
Today, lansha takes you through major investment banks’ forecasts and unpacks the core logic behind this policy game. To make sense of these forecasts, you first need to anchor on the current economic fundamentals. The Bank of England has previously stated that inflation will hit a cyclical peak around 4 % this month, then gradually decline, and only by 2027 approach its 2 % target level. Meanwhile, growth is decelerating—GDP growth is slowing, business investment is cautious, and consumer confidence has softened—making the path of recovery unusually heavy. The balancing act of nurturing growth while controlling inflation is the heart of the upcoming rate decision.
With the September inflation data and key labour-market indicators now rolling in, investment-bank forecasts are taking shape and can broadly be grouped into three categories:
Goldman Sachs: Revision, Shift to Rate Cut
As a previously staunch believer in delaying cuts, Goldman Sachs’ recent forecast revision is noteworthy. Their updated view now assumes the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 bps in November—markedly different from its September call of cuts starting in 2026. Their key reasoning includes:
* Inflation data came in better-than-expected, with September CPI at 3.8% y/y, below the 4% market forecast; core CPI also eased.
* The labour market is weakening: private-sector wage growth slowed, unemployment in Q3 came in higher than previously expected.
* Economic growth is soft: Q3 GDP has stagnated, and the November budget may bring about £30 billion of fiscal tightening.
Goldman also emphasises that the decision is likely to be close: they expect a 5-4 vote in favour of the cut, and then a gradual quarter-by-quarter easing path, reaching a terminal rate of 3% by July 2026.
Barclays: The “November Cut” Narrative Has Long Been Underpinned
Barclays was an early voice arguing for a cut in November. Their logic aligns with Goldman’s newly-updated view. Barclays points to the Bank’s “data-dependent” stance as key: incoming economic figures are likely to remain weak, and the combination of easing inflation pressure and stalled growth provides ample support for monetary easing. Compared to Goldman’s “turn,” Barclays’ call feels more like a consistent continuation of prior logic, arguing that policy needs to step in now to support the economy.
The Wait-and-See Camp: Watch the Data Before Dialling the Rate
The London Stock Exchange Group and Société Générale take a more cautious view. The LSE Group, via probabilistic modelling, estimates a December-or-later cut with only a ~30 % chance of a November move. Société Générale goes further, stating that a December cut hinges on whether November data provide clear evidence of sustained easing inflation pressure—and until that data lands, they’re reluctant to make a firm call.
What Does a Rate Move Mean for Ordinary Folks?
Regardless of the November 6 outcome, any rate move will ripple into everyday life. Take a £500,000 property purchase (loan rate at 5 %) as an example: if you borrow 70% (£350,000) over 25 years, a 1 percentage-point rate cut would bring monthly payments down from about £1,450 to about £1,170—saving roughly £280/month, or over £3,000 a year. For ordinary buyers and investors, that cost reduction can materially boost borrowing appetite, even enabling scenarios like “leveraging what was full-cash for one property into mortgages for two properties.” We’ve already helped many clients turn that kind of asset-optimisation thinking into actual planning. For export-oriented firms, a rate cut may bring about currency swings that give some pricing advantage in global markets—but given the weak economic underpinnings, the real benefit remains uncertain.
lansha’s Summary for Today
Governor Andrew Bailey’s prior remarks may have set the tone for this round: “The UK economy has not yet emerged from its difficulties, and any future rate cuts will need to be gradual and carefully considered.” From the major bank forecasts, even though voices in favour of a cut are getting louder, “caution” remains the over-arching theme—after all, inflation at 3.8% is still above the target, and the risk of a second inflation wave hasn’t been eliminated. Will the Bank hold rates steady or start cutting? At this stage, there’s no definitive answer. What is clear is that both the Bank and the analysts are watching for more data to provide signals. For us, rather than fixating on the short-term result, we’re better off watching the evolving data—because in a “data-dependent” policy regime, the secret to market direction will be embedded in the economic reports.
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