Breaking news!Dubai has officially announced a record-breaking budget totaling AED 302.7 billion (approximately USD 82.4 billion) for the fiscal years 2026–2028, marking the highest level in its history and injecting core momentum into the Dubai D33 Economic Agenda. Of the total budget, 48% will be allocated to infrastructure development, while nearly 30% will be directed toward healthcare, education, and housing, alongside further investment in green and smart upgrades as well as talent security initiatives.
Such a budget scale is likely unique to Dubai — a city expected to attract 9,800 high-net-worth individuals this year and currently home to approximately 86,000 millionaires, making it a global hub of wealth concentration. Over the past decade, Dubai’s total investable wealth has increased by 110%, ranking among the top five globally in growth rate.
Behind the continued influx of global capital and population lies Dubai’s resilient price and transaction performance, as well as an increasingly optimized market structure. Drawing on Dubai’s latest 2025 market reports, lansha now takes a closer look at why the city is widely regarded as a “safe haven” for global asset allocation.
Strengthening Market Fundamentals
In the third quarter of 2025, Dubai’s residential property market recorded transaction volumes exceeding 50,000 units for the second consecutive quarter. This sustained high-level activity across multiple quarters has effectively dispelled concerns over short-term market volatility, highlighting the strong resilience on the demand side. From a longer-term perspective, average quarterly transactions have surged from approximately 22,000 in 2022 to nearly 50,000 in 2025 to date, effectively doubling within three years. This growth has been jointly supported by global capital inflows, expatriate residents, and local upgrade-driven demand.
On the pricing front, the market continues to demonstrate a healthy pattern of “steady growth and gradual appreciation.” In Q3, residential prices rose by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter and 10% year-on-year, extending the upward trajectory that began in late 2020. This pace of growth avoids the risks associated with rapid overheating while ensuring stable capital preservation and appreciation. By the end of September, total transaction value for the year had exceeded AED 310 billion, setting a new historical record. Meanwhile, a population of approximately 4 million (as of September 2025) and an anticipated UAE GDP growth rate of 4.9% provide long-term and sustainable support for housing demand, further reinforcing market stability for investors.
From Speculation to Value Investment: Balanced Supply and Demand
Notably, compact residential units with comprehensive amenities are gaining increasing popularity. These properties cater to both the owner-occupier needs of expatriate residents and investors seeking “lower entry thresholds with higher liquidity.” An increasing number of buyers now view Dubai as a long-term place of residence rather than a temporary stopover. This shift in demand is driving the market’s transition from “high transaction activity” to “stable value,” making the environment particularly attractive for investors with a long-term return outlook.
At the same time, a healthy supply-demand cycle is providing investors with a broad range of options. More than 10,000 new residential units were added in Q3, with apartments accounting for 97% of new supply, closely aligned with prevailing market demand. By the end of Q3, nearly 30,000 residential units had been delivered in 2025, matching the total deliveries for the whole of 2024. By the end of 2028, cumulative completions are expected to exceed 250,000 units.
Across different price segments, demand dynamics remain clearly defined. For entry-level and end-user housing priced below AED 1 million, inventory declined by 14% while transaction volumes increased by 10%, with supply-demand imbalances supporting steady value growth. In the mid-market segment priced between AED 1 million and AED 25 million, transaction growth has outpaced inventory additions, reflecting robust demand support. Meanwhile, inventory growth in the ultra-prime segment above AED 25 million signals developers’ accurate anticipation of demand from global elite buyers, offering attractive allocation opportunities for high-net-worth investors.
Apartment-Led Market with Strong Upside in Core Locations
Structural investment opportunities are particularly evident across product types and geographic distribution. Apartments remain the dominant segment, accounting for 86% of total transactions in Q3, with prices rising 9.6% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter. Their lower entry barriers, strong liquidity, and stable demand continue to position them as a preferred choice for investors. The villa segment delivered even stronger performance, recording a 12% year-on-year increase and a 3.6% quarter-on-quarter rise, underscoring the resilience of high-end upgrade-driven demand.
Regionally, waterfront and prime locations continue to outperform. Meydan recorded a quarterly price increase of 22%, Palm Jumeirah achieved a 31% annual rise, and Dubai Marina posted a 15% annual increase. These areas, characterized by mature infrastructure and premium lifestyle offerings, have emerged as leading drivers of asset appreciation. Business Bay, supported by its canal-front luxury positioning, saw apartment prices rise 10% quarter-on-quarter, further validating the defensive strength and appreciation potential of core locations. Meanwhile, established districts such as Downtown Dubai and Dubai Hills Estate have experienced more moderate price growth, but continue to deliver stable rental yields thanks to comprehensive amenities and a well-established resident base, making them suitable for long-term holding strategies.
Long-Term Outlook: Structural Tailwinds Remain Intact
Looking ahead, Dubai’s residential market continues to benefit from solid long-term investment fundamentals, supported by multiple structural tailwinds. Population growth remains the primary driver, with Dubai’s population expected to exceed 5 million by 2030, generating sustained housing demand. The global wealth migration trend is equally pronounced, with an estimated 9,800 millionaires expected to relocate to the UAE in 2025, injecting additional capital into the market.
Ongoing policy optimization and infrastructure development further enhance market appeal. A low-tax environment and the continued implementation of the Golden Visa program continue to attract global talent and capital. In the 2025 academic year beginning in September, 25 new private educational institutions are scheduled to open, strengthening educational infrastructure and supporting long-term family settlement demand, which in turn reinforces residential market fundamentals.
For 2026, while price growth may moderate further, structural growth drivers remain firmly in place. Prime residential prices are projected to rise by approximately 3%, while mainstream markets are expected to see average growth of around 1%. This pattern of “stable growth with moderate upside” is a hallmark of mature markets, helping to mitigate short-term volatility while enabling long-term capital appreciation. Whether targeting steady returns or long-term wealth preservation, investors can find opportunities well aligned with their objectives within Dubai’s residential property market.
In Q3 2025, Dubai’s residential market once again demonstrated its core value as a leading global investment destination through resilient transaction volumes, stable pricing performance, an optimized market structure, and strong international appeal. Against this backdrop, residential developments located in Dubai’s prime business districts stand out as preferred assets for investors seeking to capitalize on long-term trends and secure positions in high-value locations.
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