Those planning to invest in U.S. real estate in 2026 are likely grappling with a familiar set of questions: Will the market rise or fall? How much further can interest rates decline? And where are the real opportunities hidden? In fact, after the market structure became more stable throughout 2025, the U.S. housing market has gradually moved past the post-pandemic volatility and is returning to a more rational and steady rhythm.
Today, lansha brings together insights from professional agents across the United States, real estate developers, and leading industry institutions to outline the key trends ahead. The overall market is expected to trend steadily upward, while divergence between regions and sub-sectors will become increasingly pronounced. Identifying structural opportunities will be the key to successful long-term positioning.
Core Outlook: Moderate Price Growth, with Micro-Level Differences Driving Returns
Let’s start with some reassurance: a sharp nationwide decline in home prices is unlikely in 2026. Moderate growth is expected to remain the prevailing theme. According to the latest forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales are projected to increase by approximately 14% next year, while home prices are expected to rise modestly by around 4%.
That said, national averages are becoming less meaningful as indicators. What truly determines performance are the micro-level differences within individual markets. In California’s Bay Area, for example, well-located homes in strong school districts continue to attract multiple offers and sell at a premium, while older, larger properties requiring significant renovations may trade at a discount. In Florida, markets that overheated during the pandemic are gradually cooling. As investors step back, end-user demand has become the primary driver, leading to broadly stable pricing. This shift underscores the importance of moving beyond headline data and focusing instead on neighborhood-level supply and demand dynamics, infrastructure upgrades, and local amenities.
Interest Rates and Buyer Sentiment Shift in Tandem, Giving All-Cash Buyers a Clear Edge
As the Federal Reserve enters an easing cycle, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has remained below 6.3% since mid-October, with the latest reading at 6.22%, reflecting a stable and gradually easing trend.
More important than the size of any rate cut, however, is the shift in buyer sentiment. After an extended period of adjustment, the market has grown increasingly comfortable with current interest rate levels. Improving confidence is expected to translate into higher transaction activity. For buyers with sufficient liquidity, all-cash purchases are particularly advantageous in the current environment, offering greater negotiating power and a higher likelihood of securing high-quality assets in core locations.
New Dynamics in the Rental Market: “Rent First, Sell Later” Becomes a Growing Trend
Changes in the rental market are equally noteworthy. Some homeowners, unwilling to lower their asking prices in the near term, have opted to convert unsold inventory into rental properties. Developers, meanwhile, are adjusting their strategies by building rental-focused projects first and deferring sales until market conditions improve.
This “rent first, sell later” approach reflects a more rational response from sellers while quietly reshaping the structure of rental supply. Regionally, rental demand remains strong in Sun Belt markets such as Phoenix and Austin. In core cities like New York, however, rising rents coexist with demand segmentation. Low vacancy rates are pushing overall rents higher, and tenants are increasingly inclined to stay put to avoid relocation costs. Pre-war buildings, limited in supply, have seen particularly strong rent increases, while newly built properties, benefiting from greater availability, are beginning to stand out for their relative value.
Focus on New York: A Core Hub for “Study-and-Invest” Strategies with Clear Structural Opportunities
Turning the spotlight to New York, the city is not only a global financial center but also a key hub for “study-and-invest” property strategies, where structural opportunities are especially evident. In 2026, New York’s market is expected to become more active, with transaction volumes rebounding alongside an increase in housing supply, providing families pursuing education-focused ownership strategies with more options to choose from.
New York is home to renowned institutions such as Columbia University, New York University, and Cornell Tech, making residential properties near campuses perennially popular. For families accompanying students or planning for their children’s education in the United States, the “study-and-invest” approach offers a dual benefit: securing housing during the study period while offsetting mortgage or living expenses by renting out unused rooms. After graduation, the property can be sold or held as a long-term rental, supporting both capital preservation and appreciation.
From a rental perspective, demand around major universities remains stable. Tenants are primarily students and academic staff, characterized by strong rental intent and relatively reliable payment capacity, resulting in lower vacancy rates for education-oriented properties. At the same time, tenant expectations continue to rise. Properties that offer dedicated study spaces, shared kitchens, and convenient access to campus are increasingly favored. Renting is no longer merely a transitional solution but a critical pillar supporting the “study-and-invest” model.
Policy tailwinds are also strengthening New York’s appeal for education-focused ownership. New York City’s “City of Yes” initiative is expected to introduce meaningful changes by eliminating minimum parking requirements and promoting the conversion of non-residential buildings into housing. These measures may reduce development costs and add tens of thousands of affordable housing units, many of which are likely to be located near university areas, further expanding the range of options for “study-and-invest” buyers.
For families who envision their children building long-term careers in the United States, purchasing a home may be the more strategic choice. In fact, many forward-thinking parents have already taken action, using the “study-and-invest” strategy to achieve both education cost offsetting and long-term asset growth.
To make this concept easier to understand, we can express the logic of “study-and-invest” with a simple inequality:
In practical terms, this means:
Purchasing a home for owner-occupation to save on otherwise high rental costs.
Renting out a property to subsidize rental expenses in another city.
Using property appreciation to offset, as much as possible, the overall cost of studying abroad.
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At its core, this strategy focuses on using property ownership to cover or partially offset a child’s tuition and living expenses during their studies, while also capturing steady, long-term returns through real estate.
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